Chance Doll

Seekers of the Storm - DLC Content Chance Doll is part of the Seekers of the Storm DLC. It is only available if the DLC is enabled when starting a run. Click for more info.Chance Doll
Chance to increase item rarity at Shrines of Chance.
20% (+8% per stack) chance to get higher rarity items from chance shrines on success.
Rarity	Uncommon
Category	Utility CannotDuplicate HalcyoniteShrine
Stats
Stat	Value	Stack	Add
Chance	20%	Linear	+8%

The Chance Doll is an Item in Risk of Rain 2, introduced in the Seekers of the Storm DLC.

The item adds a 40% (+10% per stack) chance to drop higher rarity items from a Shrine of Chance on a successful purchase.

Notes

• Correction: The actual chance is 40% (+10% per stack) instead of 20% (+8% per stack).
• A successful roll does not upgrade the rarity of the drop, but rather it uses a custom item pool which has higher chances of selecting higher rarities. See Math for more details.
  • At 7 stacks it guarantees the custom item pool will always be used. This pool never selects common items or equipment.
• Allows boss items to drop from the Shrine.

Math

The Shrine of Chance has failure rate of 45% and the other 55% of the time it will drop an item. If the player has any Chance Doll stacks, it will roll for substituting the item pool with a success rate

$p=30\%+10\%\times amount$

Where amount is the number of stacks.

The Shrine uses two item pools with different rarity weights based on whether the above roll succeeds.

• Default: 65.57%, 16.39%, 1.64%, 0%, 16.39%
• Chance Doll: 0%, 79%, 20%, 1%, 0%

The chance for selecting an item from a certain rarity is then calculated as

$((1-p)\times defaultRarityChance+p\times dollRarityChance)\times 55\%$

This data is summarised in the table below.

Amount	No Item	Common	Uncommon	Legendary	Boss	Equipment
0	45%	36.07%	9.02%	0.9%	0%	9.02%
1	45%	21.64%	22.79%	4.94%	0.22%	5.41%
2	45%	18.03%	26.23%	5.95%	0.28%	4.51%
3	45%	14.43%	29.68%	6.96%	0.33%	3.61%
4	45%	10.82%	33.12%	7.97%	0.38%	2.7%
5	45%	7.21%	36.56%	8.98%	0.44%	1.8%
6	45%	3.61%	40.01%	9.99%	0.5%	0.9%
7+	45%	0%	43.45%	11.0%	0.55%	0%

Do note that these chances are affected by the drop chance bias, making boss items even less likely than the table above implies.

Lore

Two reptilian figures walk deep into Stone territory, the smaller one carries a stone-string doll. Cairns and more dolls decorate the path.
---
I do as you say, I bring my friend Pebl, but I do not like it.
Father, must we leave her?

Humling, we must return Pebl to her first family.
To honor our agreement, we return her before your Humling days are behind you.

I do as you say, I think she will like leaning here, do you?
Father, where is her family?
Humling, when the demon fell from the Sky, many families hid themselves away.
To protect her, her family will see the demon resolved before returning.
I do as you say.
Father, I will miss her.

Version History

Seekers of the Storm

• Added New Item: Chance Doll